EU Wheat Shortage Boosts Russian Grain Exports

Russia may strengthen its presence in traditional EU wheat export markets in the upcoming 2026/27 season due to a significant downward revision of grain production forecasts across the bloc.

A hot and dry spring, followed by extreme heat across several EU countries in June, has led to reduced crop yields. Analysts at the Federal Center Agroexport project that EU wheat production could decline to 136 million tons (-9.1 million tons from the 2025/26 MY), corn production to 53.8 million tons (-3 million tons), and barley production to 53.2 million tons (-3.2 million tons).

In France, the EU's key grain exporter, soft wheat production is forecast to fall to 30.8 million tons (-2.5 million tons), while corn production is expected to decline to 9.5 million tons, the lowest level in the past 26 years.

This development may improve the competitiveness of Russian grain in markets traditionally supplied by European exporters. Analysts believe that export shipments could increase to North Africa and Sub-Saharan Africa, where Russia has been expanding its market share.