European natural gas prices dropped by 2% early Wednesday, as traders awaited U.S. President Donald Trump's next steps regarding Iran following the Republicans' loss of congressional control in the midterm elections. The front-month price at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), Europe's benchmark for gas trading, fell to 89.59 euros ($100.85) per megawatt-hour (MWh) by 9 a.m. in Amsterdam, erasing earlier gains of about 1%. The market remains on edge over potential U.S. strikes on Iran or diplomatic efforts, which could impact gas supplies.
The current TTF price is significantly lower than the four-year high of over 101.82 euros ($114) per MWh seen at the end of last week, when it first surpassed the 100-euro mark since 2022. That spike occurred during the previous gas crisis when Russia halted pipeline gas supplies to most of its European customers after Putin's invasion of Ukraine. Europe's gas supply situation remains precarious as LNG flows from Qatar are minimal, with QatarEnergy extending its force majeure on deliveries until at least the end of December 2026.
EU storage sites were only 74.33% full as of November 3, well below the five-year average of about 86% for this time of year. As temperatures drop and the heating season begins, storage levels are declining as withdrawals start across most EU countries. Analysts warn that any re-escalation in Iran could push European gas prices back above the 100-euro per MWh mark, prolonging the Qatari force majeure into next year.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) reported that the global gas market could remain tight well into next year, as Europe enters the heating season with the lowest levels of gas in storage in over a decade.