Europe’s benchmark natural gas prices have surged past 101 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh) for the first time since the 2022 crisis, as winter approaches with historically low gas storage levels. The front-month price at the Dutch Title Transfer Facility (TTF), Europe’s key gas trading benchmark, jumped 4% by 9 a.m. in Amsterdam on Friday. This marks an 8% weekly gain, driven by fears that escalating tensions in the Middle East could disrupt Qatari and Emirati LNG shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
The TTF price hit 101.82 euros ($114) per MWh early Friday, crossing the 100-euro threshold for the first time since 2022, when Russia halted pipeline gas supplies to Europe following the invasion of Ukraine. As of October 29, EU storage sites were only 74.89% full, significantly below the five-year average of 86% for this time of year. With the heating season underway, storage levels are unlikely to rise further as withdrawals have already begun in several countries.
QatarEnergy extended its force majeure on LNG deliveries until the end of the year, leaving Europe and Asia without guaranteed supply during the winter. Warren Patterson, Head of Commodities Strategy at ING, noted that the market shows no immediate signs of relief, with the outlook worsening due to potential US strikes on Iran following next week’s midterm elections. Unplanned outages in Norway are also adding to Europe’s supply concerns.