European wheat futures showed mixed movements on Monday, with front-month contracts gaining ground due to stronger export activity in France. Benchmark December milling wheat on Euronext settled 0.1% higher at €228.25 ($255.78) per metric ton, marking its third consecutive daily increase after hitting a 3-1/2 month low last Wednesday. Meanwhile, deferred contracts traded slightly lower, reflecting expectations of improved wheat flows from Russia.
The market remains cautious about the ongoing war in the Black Sea, with traders watching for any signs of de-escalation. However, current loading activity in France is providing support. At the northern French port of Dunkirk, one vessel is set to load about 65,000 tons of wheat for Egypt, while two others will take approximately 100,000 tons for Yemen. A sharp rise in the euro against the dollar limited gains on Euronext but helped Chicago wheat edge higher.
In Russia, the world's largest wheat exporter, analysts have raised their estimates for October exports to around 3 million tons. Traders noted that over 120,000 tons of Russian 12.5% protein wheat was offered for export via Baltic ports on Monday alone, priced between $258 and $261 per ton FOB. This is about $5 below western EU wheat and $10 below Romanian wheat, highlighting the competitive pricing from Russian exports.
A German trader observed that price increases are constrained by the rising volumes of both Russian and Ukrainian wheat entering export markets, despite disruptions in Black Sea shipping. The market continues to balance between the supportive factors from French exports and the downward pressure from Russian supply.