Europe's Energy Crisis Deepens as Qatar's LNG Exports Plummet

Europe is facing a potential energy crisis as Qatar's liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports have plummeted by 96% since the US-Israeli war with Iran began in late February. This has resulted in a significant shortfall of LNG supplies to Europe, which could lead to higher gas prices and reduced storage inventories. According to ICIS, the peak storage level for Western and Central Europe is expected to be lower than previously forecast, reflecting weak injection rates this year. Storage facilities are currently 63% full, compared with a five-year average of 81%. The prolonged absence of Qatari LNG has also had a significant impact on European gas prices, which could rise to €80/MWh in the winter of 2026/2027.

Qatar's LNG exports have fallen from 20% of global exports before the war began in late February to just 18 LNG cargoes since March. The country has lost an estimated $24 billion in revenue as a result. ICIS estimates that European gas storage facilities will enter the winter with a deficit, which could lead to increased competition for LNG supplies and higher prices. Alternative suppliers such as the US are increasing their exports to Europe, but this may not be enough to offset the loss of Qatari LNG.

Natasha Fielding, a manager at Argus Media, noted that EU gas storage facilities are currently 63% full, compared with a five-year average of 81%. She warned that Europe will have to rely more heavily on LNG imports during the winter and may be forced to compete more aggressively with Asian buyers for available cargoes.