Europe's Gas Diversification Efforts Expose New Risks in Africa

Europe's effort to reduce its dependence on Russian gas has been successful, but it has come at a cost. The continent has had to navigate one of its most severe energy crises in recent history, and new risks have emerged as a result.

The EU has reduced Russia's share of gas imports from 45% to 13%, but this diversification alone has not solved the problem of energy security. Europe's search for new suppliers is increasingly leading it to Africa, where Russia is targeting alternative energy sources to make them unviable.

Norway, which supplies over 50% of EU gas imports, faces a structural problem: its finite resources are being depleted, and the country must rely on developing new fields or relying on reserves in the Arctic. This makes Norway an increasingly prominent target for Russian sabotage, as it becomes more reliant on energy exports to meet growing EU demand.

The United States and Qatar, other major suppliers of LNG, have demonstrated a willingness to use their energy as leverage over the EU's domestic agenda, threatening to suspend supplies if the bloc does not comply with certain conditions. This highlights two major weaknesses in the current diversification model: Europe's exposure to energy blackmail and its reliance on uncertain and geopolitically sensitive energy sources.