Europe's Gas Price Surge: A Warning of Unfinished Transition

European natural gas prices have surged to their highest level since early 2023 due to renewed conflict in the Middle East and low storage levels heading into winter.

The Dutch TTF benchmark has pushed above €75 per megawatt-hour, with traders concerned about whether Europe can secure enough additional LNG at a time when geopolitical disruption is constraining supply and Asian buyers may be competing aggressively for the same cargoes.

Europe's storage system is operating with too little spare capacity, making it vulnerable to global energy shocks. The continent has rebuilt its energy system around LNG, Norwegian pipeline gas, renewables, and reduced consumption, but LNG is still a global commodity, subject to competition from other regions.