Prime Minister Mark Carney is pushing for Canada to become an energy superpower, focusing on expanding oil pipelines and liquefied natural gas (LNG) terminals. This shift contrasts sharply with his earlier stance as Bank of England governor, where he warned about climate change and the risks of stranded assets. The EU, desperate for energy diversification, discussed Canadian LNG exports during the recent Canada-EU summit in Montreal. However, the EU's declining gas consumption and commitment to renewable energy may make Canadian LNG a costly and unnecessary investment.
The EU's gas demand has dropped by 17% since 2020, a trend expected to continue as the bloc aims to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030. Canadian LNG projects, such as the proposed C$80-billion Hudson Bay terminal, could take over a decade to complete. By then, the EU's appetite for imported LNG may have significantly diminished, leaving Canada with stranded assets. The EU's focus on renewable energy, spurred by recent energy shocks, further reduces the likelihood of long-term LNG demand.
Canada's Northland Power, in partnership with Poland’s Orlen, recently completed the Baltic Power offshore wind farm, highlighting the EU's shift toward renewable energy. The EU's gas reversal is driven by economic, political, and environmental necessities, including the need to break reliance on U.S. LNG and reduce fossil fuel dependence. While Carney's vision of an energy superpower may appeal to Canada, the EU's long-term energy strategy suggests it may not align with European priorities.