Social media posts claiming that gas companies artificially inflated prices to hurt former President Donald Trump before the November 3 election have been debunked by energy market experts. The posts suggested that the recent drop in gas prices was proof of such manipulation, but data shows prices began falling in late September, well before the election.
The U.S. average gas price dropped below $4 for the first time since July during the week of November 9, reaching about $3.94 on November 11. This is more than $0.50 below the peak of $4.48 on September 21. On the West Coast, prices fell from $5.60 on September 21 to $5.11 on November 9.
Experts attribute the decline to seasonal shifts and increasing Middle East oil exports. Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis for GasBuddy, noted that people drive less in autumn, reducing demand, and gas stations switch to a cheaper wintertime gasoline blend. Hugh Daigle, a University of Texas at Austin associate professor, said the recent price drop is slightly more than usual for this time of year but still aligns with seasonal trends.
The Iran war is the main cause of this year’s spike in gas prices. After the U.S. and Israel attacked Iran in February, Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, a key oil shipping route, restraining global oil supply. However, recent increases in oil exports through the strait and alternative routes have helped ease prices. Some analysts also suggest that Democrats’ election win may have influenced oil prices, as expectations about future policy changes can affect market behavior.
De Haan emphasized that there is no evidence to support the claim that gas companies purposely inflated prices. Oil is traded on a global market, and American gas companies have little ability to dictate prices. He also noted that Democrats tend to regulate the oil and gas industry more than Republicans, so there’s no clear incentive for oil companies to favor Democrats.