FAO Forecasts 3.5% Decline in Global Grain Trade Amid Logistics Disruptions

The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) has forecasted a decline in global grain trade by 3.5% for the 2026/27 season, reaching 505.8 million tons.

This drop is attributed to lower wheat and corn exports due to constrained Black Sea shipping and insufficient capacity on alternative transport routes.

The FAO Cereal Price Index increased by 5.1% in September, with wheat prices rising by 6.3% and corn prices increasing by 5.6% compared to the previous month.

Global cereal production is forecasted at 2.979 billion tons for 2026, a decrease of 2.1% from 2025, but still the second-largest crop on record.