FAS Revises Argentina Wheat Crop Estimate Higher Amid Favorable Weather

The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) of the US Department of Agriculture has revised Argentina's wheat crop production estimate for the 2026-27 marketing year. The new estimate is 21.6 million tonnes, a 600,000-tonne increase from the initial forecast issued in April. This revision reflects an additional 200,000 hectares planted, bringing the harvested area to 6.6 million hectares.

The FAS attributed the increase to favorable weather conditions and lower prices for key agricultural inputs, which incentivized farmers to expand late-season planting. By mid-July, over 90% of the crop had been planted, with the estimated harvested area only slightly below last year's level.

The decline in production is largely due to exceptional yields achieved in 2025-26, when excellent weather conditions resulted in record-high wheat crops. Argentine wheat exports were also revised higher to 15.5 million tonnes, a 500,000-tonne increase from the April projection.