Fed Hike Odds Rise as Middle East Tensions Escalate with Brent Crude Surpassing $90

The probability of a 25 basis point Fed rate hike in September has risen to 57%, according to CME FedWatch data. The related transaction volume on Polymarket exceeded $66.6 million, and related trading volume on Kalshi exceeded $23.8 million.

Meanwhile, tensions in the Middle East continue to escalate, with the US military striking Iran's Larak Island to block the Revolutionary Guard's mine-laying operations. Brent crude has rebounded to over $90 per barrel.

SWIFT has launched a blockchain ledger to tackle stablecoin challenges, and HSBC and Standard Chartered have completed the first real-time transaction through this system, reducing settlement time to just a few seconds.