Fed Minutes to Test Gold's Price as Hike Odds Climb

Gold prices continue to be influenced by the Federal Reserve's interest rate decisions. As of August 19, spot gold traded at $4,359.58 an ounce, while US gold futures were at $4,413.40. The market is pricing in a 28-33% chance of a quarter-point increase in September.

The July Federal Open Market Committee minutes are due out on August 19, and the market will be looking for clues on the Fed's future actions. A hawkish signal would indicate that more officials support a near-term hike, while a dovish tone could suggest that the majority of policymakers are prioritizing employment risks or awaiting more data.

The current gold forecast range remains wide due to lower real yields supporting bullion and renewed tightening potentially putting pressure on it through yields and the dollar. The immediate range is defined by $4,390 above and $4,300 below, with a break above opening up the possibility of reaching $4,505.