Fentanyl Crisis May Follow Historical Pattern as Supply-Side Efforts Show Promise

The fentanyl crisis in the US is a complex issue that has been plagued by its potency, low cost, and ease of production. According to the U.S. Drug Enforcement Administration, fentanyl is about 50 times more potent than heroin and can be fatal even in small amounts, as little as two milligrams. This makes it extremely difficult to combat.

Historically, devastating drug epidemics have often ended when the drug became harder to get, more expensive, or more tightly controlled. The nation's first major opioid crisis unfolded in the late 1800s and eased over time due to changes in medical practices and laws. Doctors began prescribing opioids less frequently, aspirin and other treatments became available, and new laws increased oversight.

In London's infamous gin craze of the 1700s, poor harvests drove up grain prices and stricter licensing made alcohol harder to obtain, eventually leading to a decline in addiction rates. In China, widespread opium addiction was curtailed through aggressive government action, though at an enormous human cost.

Researchers have found that when supply-side efforts are implemented, such as reducing access to key ingredients, street supplies can become weaker and less available. After China strengthened controls on several chemicals used to manufacture fentanyl, street supplies appeared to become weaker and less available, suggesting that this approach could be effective in combating the crisis.

The findings are preliminary, but they indicate that reducing access to key ingredients could make illicit fentanyl harder to produce. While history does not guarantee that today's crisis will follow the same path as those of the past, previous drug epidemics have shown that when supply becomes constrained, drug use and addiction can eventually decline.