Fishmeal production hits lowest level since 2016 amid Peru supply drop

Global fishmeal production is expected to drop below 4.6 million tonnes in 2026, marking the lowest level since 2016. The decline is primarily driven by reduced supply from Peru, a key player in the industry. According to marine ingredients organization IFFO, fish oil production is also projected to fall to 1.15 million tonnes, the lowest since 2016. These projections were shared in an October 5 update.

Through August 2026, cumulative fishmeal production in countries covered by IFFO’s member data was 45% below the same period in 2025. Fish oil output saw a 26% decrease. While raw material intake improved in August due to gains in Chile, Spain, and the United States, other regions like Africa, Iceland, and the North Atlantic experienced weaker availability.

The main constraint remains Peru, where raw material intake was very low due to the closure of the north-central fishing season. Peru typically contributes around 20% of global fishmeal and fish oil production. The Peruvian Marine Research Institute, Imarpe, began an anchovy stock assessment on September 15, with results expected by October 7. El Niño remains a concern amid expectations of prolonged coastal warming in Peru.

Fishmeal production from pelagic and demersal raw material is forecast at approximately 3.6 million tonnes, with fish oil output projected at 605,000 tonnes. Production from other species, such as salmon and pangasius, is expected to increase, potentially supporting growth in fish oil supply. However, fishing activity in the final weeks of the year could alter these projections, according to IFFO market research director Enrico Bachis.

In China, imported fishmeal stocks continued to decline at the end of September, remaining well below average. Domestic production following the fishing moratorium also disappointed. The member data covers countries accounting for approximately 40% of global fishmeal production and 50% of fish oil output.