Fitch Affirms Qatar Rating Amid Ongoing LNG Export Disruptions

Fitch Ratings has affirmed Qatar's Long-Term Issuer Default Rating at AA and removed it from Rating Watch Negative. However, the Outlook remains Negative due to ongoing risks from prolonged disruption to LNG exports through the Strait of Hormuz.

The agency assumes a deal will enable resumption of exports in 1Q27, after which it will take around six months to reach pre-war levels minus the 17% capacity damaged by an Iranian attack on Ras Laffan in March.

Fitch expects Qatar's economy to contract by 18.8% this year due to lower LNG production, but anticipates a sharp rebound in growth as LNG flows normalize and the North Field expansion begins.