Fitch Holds Steady on 2026 Oil Price Forecast Amid Market Volatility

Fitch Ratings has maintained its oil price forecast for 2026 at $87 per barrel, despite recent market volatility. The rating agency also raised its 2027 forecast by $5 to $70 per barrel, as revealed by Jakub Zasada, EMEA Director for Corporate Ratings at Fitch, during the “Fitch in Azerbaijan” event in Baku.

Zasada noted that Fitch initially set the 2026 price assumption at $87 per barrel in the spring and has not adjusted it despite significant fluctuations. Oil prices dropped to around $70 per barrel in mid-June due to a memorandum of understanding between Iran and the United States and the restoration of oil flows to 75% of pre-war levels. However, this decline was short-lived as military operations resumed in July and attacks on Saudi infrastructure in September pushed prices above $100 per barrel.

The stability of oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remains a critical factor for the global market, according to Zasada. Fitch expects the United States and Middle Eastern countries to ensure the transport of at least 10 million barrels of oil per day, with Saudi Arabia’s East-West pipeline contributing around 5 million barrels per day to global supply.

Fitch forecasts global oil supply to reach approximately 107 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter, surpassing demand of around 104 million barrels per day. The increase in supply is anticipated to come mainly from non-OPEC producers such as the United States, Brazil, Guyana, and Argentina, with an additional 1.5 million barrels per day this year and 1 million barrels per day next year. Meanwhile, global oil demand is expected to recover to 104 million barrels per day and higher levels in 2027.