Fitch Solutions raises 2026 Brent price forecast to $93 per barrel

Fitch Solutions has revised its Brent crude oil price forecast, raising its 2026 average prediction from $83 to $93 per barrel and its 2027 forecast from $71 to $81 per barrel. The adjustment reflects shifting expectations regarding the US-Iran conflict, particularly the likelihood of reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Analysts now consider a preliminary agreement unlikely before the first quarter of 2027, with a 70% probability of reaching such an agreement by the second quarter of 2027.

The forecast outlines three potential scenarios following a preliminary agreement: a final agreement (40% probability), a stop-start cycle of negotiations (30% probability), and escalation to high-intensity hostilities (30% probability). Fitch Solutions anticipates continued disruptions in regional oil supplies, exacerbated by the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which will drive prices higher over the next six months.

According to the forecast, depleting inventories and high refining margins will boost demand for crude oil, while limited strategic reserve releases and new production capacity will fail to eliminate the deficit. This will result in a zigzag price pattern, with recurring cycles of escalation and de-escalation between Washington and Tehran. Fitch Solutions now predicts an average Brent price of $107 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 and $112 per barrel in the first quarter of 2027.

Market sentiment has become more bullish, with the ratio of asset managers' long to short positions in Brent futures increasing from 1.6 in early July to 4.1 in mid-September. However, the recent decline in prices since mid-September creates risks for the short-term forecast. The Brent price dynamics indicate market weakness, while the futures curve remains in pronounced backwardation, signaling tight supply in the near-term market.