Food Crisis Looms as El Nino Intensifies
India's External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar has warned of a major food crisis in the coming months, citing disruptions to grain shipments, fertilizer shortages, and the intensifying El Niño weather pattern.
The combination of these factors, which he described as a '4F' crisis involving food, fuel, fertiliser, and finance, could result in a significant shortage of essential commodities, particularly for import-dependent countries.
Jaisankar's warning was made during an Asia Society event in New York following the United Nations General Assembly's High-Level Week. He highlighted the Black Sea region as a major source of concern due to Russia and Ukraine's disruptions to ports and shipping routes.
Russian wheat exports are on track to fall by 80% this month, while Ukrainian exports are expected to be roughly half their September 2025 level. The FAO has warned that attacks have damaged three major grain terminals in the Black Sea and Sea of Azov region, affecting about one-fifth of the area's grain-loading capacity.
The global food market is already showing signs of pressure, with international wheat prices rising by 2.6% in August and being 15% higher than a year earlier. FAO attributed this to factors including concerns over crop prospects, continued uncertainty around Black Sea trade flows, and disruptions linked to energy and geopolitical developments.
The El Niño weather pattern is expected to intensify into a very strong event in the coming months, posing significant risks to agriculture in several regions, including parts of South and Southeast Asia, Southern Africa, the Sahel, and Central America.