Food Crisis Looms as Strait Blockade Meets Super El Niño

A looming global food crisis is anticipated by experts due to two colliding problems: the Strait of Hormuz blockade and a 'super' El Niño event.

The Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman, has seen reduced oil and gas traffic since 2023 due to the risk of attacks. This has driven up global fertilizer prices, with nitrogen-based fertilizers like urea being processed from natural gas.

The 'super' El Niño event is expected to begin this month, bringing higher global temperatures and disrupting weather patterns worldwide. Analysts debate its severity and impact on food production, but some predict it could degrade food production across the entire planet.

Four scenarios have been outlined by experts, each depicting a different outcome depending on the speed of oil and gas traffic resumption in the Strait of Hormuz and the severity of the El Niño event. The scenarios range from a 'narrowest escape' where cooperation and policies mitigate the crisis to a 'political collapse' scenario where widespread food shortages lead to systemic breakdown.