Gas Stocks Lag in Europe Amid LNG Supply Disruptions

Europe is facing risks of gas shortages this winter as storage levels lag behind expectations. The region's gas stocks are currently at around 68% capacity, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe, which is lower than in previous years. This is due in part to disruptions to liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies from the Gulf, particularly from Qatar, which has largely suspended shipments amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Erisa Pasko, lead European gas analyst at Energy Aspects, notes that 'Europe is prepared for a normal winter, but it is not well insulated against a severe one.' The consultancy expects European storage to reach 69% capacity by the end of October, but warns that inventories could fall to just 16% by the end of March even under normal weather conditions.

Germany is particularly exposed, with its storage facilities at only 55.8% capacity as of September 14, compared to 52.5% in the Netherlands. The European Commission has attempted to downplay the risks, citing more diverse supply sources and greater LNG import capacity as reasons why the EU is better prepared than in 2021-22.