Geopolitical Shifts Fuel Anxiety and Energy Security Fears in Pakistan

The rapid geopolitical developments in South Asia have sparked significant concern and anxiety within Pakistan. Recent summits like the SCO in Uzbekistan and the BRICS in New Delhi, along with Prime Minister Narendra Modi's diplomatic engagements in Central Asia, have heightened tensions. Pakistan's exclusion from the BRICS Summit, coupled with Iran's inclusion, has further exacerbated its frustration. The growing strategic partnerships between India, the UAE, and other regional players are seen as direct threats to Pakistan's energy security and geopolitical standing.

India's expanding energy cooperation with the UAE, including plans to store up to 30 million barrels of ADNOC crude oil in India's Strategic Petroleum Reserves, has drawn sharp criticism from Pakistani analysts. They view this as a significant disparity in regional energy security, potentially disadvantageous to Pakistan in any future conflict. India's diplomatic efforts to stabilize oil supply chains amid the US-Iran-Israel war have also been met with unease in Pakistan, particularly its role in brokering a high-level meeting between the UAE and Iran during the BRICS Summit.

The Yemen Houthi rebels' attacks on Saudi Arabia, including the city of Mecca, have raised serious doubts about the effectiveness of the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement signed between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan. The lack of response from Pakistan and Turkey during these attacks has questioned the pact's reliability. Meanwhile, the United Nations General Assembly's 81st session in September 2026 highlighted India's growing international support, with leaders from Ukraine, Russia, Nepal, and Bhutan endorsing India's bid for a permanent position in the Security Council, further unsettling Pakistan's strategic calculus.