Geopolitical Tensions to Keep Farmer Input Costs High Through 2027

Farmers in the U.S. should brace for continued high input costs through 2027, driven by global political tensions and supply chain disruptions, according to Barry Ward, leader of Ohio State University Extension’s Production Business Management program. Speaking at the 64th annual Farm Science Review on Sept. 24, 2026, Ward highlighted that variable costs for farmers are expected to rise by around $30 per acre due to higher fuel and fertilizer prices.

The 2026 Iran war and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict are major factors inflating fertilizer prices. The Strait of Hormuz, a critical trade route, has seen restricted flow of nitrogen and phosphate, while the Black Sea region’s instability continues to disrupt global supply chains. Ward noted that European nitrogen production is currently at only 75% of normal levels, further tightening supplies and pushing up prices.

While fuel costs remain elevated, diesel averaged $6.44 per gallon at the time of the report, some relief may come from stable crop prices. December 2027 corn futures are projected at $5 per bushel, and soybeans at $12.30, though these figures are slightly below current market rates. Ward also addressed the U.S.-Canada trade tensions over potash, a key fertilizer component, cautioning that President Trump’s suggestion of sourcing cheaper potash from Belarus is unlikely to materialize.

Despite these challenges, Ward expressed cautious optimism about domestic demand for fertilizer remaining close to normal due to solid corn and soybean prices. However, he warned that the overall cost structure for farmers will be higher, making 2027 a challenging year for achieving positive margins.