Germany's Gas Supply Faces Winter Uncertainties Amid Disruptions

Germany's gas supply is facing significant uncertainties this winter due to various risks and disruptions in the European gas market. According to Professor Andreas C. Goldthau, low storage levels and potential disruptions in international liquefied natural gas (LNG) supply are major concerns. The ongoing conflict in the Strait of Hormuz has effectively closed it, reducing global LNG availability.

Goldthau warns that even small regional events could have a significant impact on the international market, potentially causing price spikes during the winter period. He notes that storage levels are at historically low levels and mandated refill targets will likely not be reached by November.

The professor also points to potential disruptions in U.S. LNG facilities due to hurricanes or strike at Australian export terminals as major risks. Even the possibility of U.S. export licenses for LNG being revoked could significantly reduce available supply and cause European gas prices to soar.