Global Food and Fuel Security Risks Rise as Conflicts Disrupt Key Trade Routes

The Iran-Israel-US war and Russia-Ukraine conflict are causing disruptions to global oil, grain, and fertilizer routes, raising concerns about food and fuel supply shocks.

The Strait of Hormuz, which carries around a fifth of the world's oil and gas supplies, is experiencing severe disruption, alongside significant disruptions to Black Sea grain shipments. Attacks on Russian and Ukrainian ports and vessels have reduced agricultural exports, while alternative routes through the Danube, Baltic, and other corridors face capacity, infrastructure, weather, and security constraints.

The situation has created a 'triple chokepoint' for food supply routes, with the Strait of Hormuz and Black Sea disruption joined by growing risks around the Bab el Mandeb Strait and the Red Sea. The convergence of the two conflicts is also affecting energy markets, with global diesel prices reaching record levels due to supply disruptions linked to the wars in Iran and Ukraine.

Middle Eastern diesel shipments fell by half between March and August compared to a year earlier, while Russia's fuel exports have been affected by Ukrainian attacks on refineries and ports. Higher fuel prices matter for food security because diesel is used in farm machinery, irrigation, harvesting, processing, and transportation, while higher marine fuel costs increase the expense of moving grain and other commodities.