Global Food Prices Rise Despite Strong Harvests Amid Supply Chain Disruptions

Global food security concerns are resurfacing despite strong harvests in some regions. Grocery bills are rising for sugar, wheat, and rice, driven by disruptions in production, transport, and financing rather than a shortage of food. The FAO Food Price Index reached 136 points in September 2026, up 1.5% from August and 5.8% year-over-year. Cereal prices surged 5.1% in September and 17.2% over the past year, with wheat prices hitting their highest level since August 2023.

Transport bottlenecks, particularly in Ukraine, a major wheat exporter, are disrupting grain markets. Fertiliser shortages, exacerbated by disruptions in the Persian Gulf, are another key issue. Fertiliser manufacturing is concentrated among a few producers, and supply shocks can delay their impact on food markets by months. Countries like China and Russia have restricted fertiliser exports, worsening global shortages.

Developing nations face additional challenges due to currency depreciation, making dollar-priced imports more expensive. Climate change is further complicating the situation, with a 90% chance of a strong El Niño during the 2026-27 winter, threatening droughts in vulnerable regions. India, while well-positioned with strong grain reserves, remains dependent on imported fertiliser and fuel, highlighting the interconnected nature of global food security.

The core issue is not just growing enough food but ensuring affordability and distribution. For India and the Global South, food security now requires investing in climate-resilient seeds and strengthening the links between farm inputs and final delivery to mitigate shocks.