Global Food Prices Set for Significant Rise Amid Heat, Drought, and Conflict

The global food price index is expected to rise significantly in 2026 and 2027, according to Oxford Economics. Wheat prices are under particular pressure due to high energy and waste costs, which could lead to higher bread and pasta prices.

Extreme heat and drought have destroyed crops throughout Europe, while farmers face rising energy and waste prices due to wars in the Middle East and Ukraine. The Hormuz Strait blockade has disrupted oil supply chains, causing global oil prices to increase by 36% year-over-year in July.

Thomas Dvorak, senior economist at Oxford Economics, attributes the biggest impact on global food prices to 'fighting between the US and Iran and its impact on resources needed for production, primarily oil, natural gas and waste'.

The price of wheat is expected to reach 440 euros per 20 kg in the third quarter of 2026, a 36% increase from the same period last year. Fresh foods such as fruits and vegetables will be the first to see price hikes, with processed foods following suit within six to nine months.