Global Grain Market Faces Largest Deficit in Over Three Decades

Global grain supplies are facing challenges despite a large US corn crop in 2026/27. According to Karen Braun, Chief Market Analyst at Zaner Ag Hedge and former Reuters agricultural columnist, global corn consumption could exceed production by nearly 30 million tons.

This would be the largest deficit in over three decades, as estimated by the USDA. The market is already responding with higher prices, with corn futures increasing significantly in recent months, including a record 16% jump in August for Chicago corn alone.

The main issue isn't the US, but rather declining exportable supplies from other key producing countries. Combined corn and wheat production among major exporters is forecast to decline sharply in 2026/27, with the year-on-year drop potentially being the largest since 1993/94.