Global Grain Markets Squeeze as Corn Deficit Hits 33-Year High

Global grain markets have tightened significantly due to smaller crop yields, strong demand, and limited Black Sea export capacity. According to Raymond James, global corn consumption is expected to exceed production by approximately 29 million tonnes in 2026/27, marking the largest absolute deficit in 33 years.

The stocks-to-use ratio has dropped to 9.7% from 12.1% earlier this year, falling below the 10% threshold. This decline follows an 11-point drop in late-summer crop ratings and exposure to late-season heat, suggesting additional yield risks remain.

Corn futures have risen by 8% since May 1, while wheat futures have gained 12%. Combined corn and wheat production across major exporters is expected to decline by 84 million tonnes year-over-year, roughly equivalent to an entire U.S. corn export program.