Global Metal Market Driven by Tariffs, Capex, Geopolitics

The global metal market is being driven by various factors including tariffs, capex, and geopolitics. J.P. Morgan Global Research forecasts that copper prices will reach $14,800 per metric ton in the fourth quarter of this year due to sulfur shortages, tight mine supply, an industrial boom, and the threat of U.S. tariffs.

The price of aluminum is expected to reach $3,800 per metric ton in the third quarter of 2026 and $3,700 in the fourth quarter, driven by supply disruptions arising from the Middle East conflict and possible shifts in Chinese export policy.

Steel prices are highly region-dependent with tariffs keeping prices elevated in the U.S. and EU while China's property slump has driven prices down. Gregory Shearer, head of Base and Precious Metals Strategy at J.P. Morgan, believes that a material component of the rally in copper over the last six months is an embedded tariff uncertainty.

Shearer added that the market is in wait-and-see mode as the Trump Administration decides what to do about copper as part of its review of Section 232 duties, which could lead to a tug-of-war between the U.S. and China for copper units.