Global Rice Markets Struggle with Declining Exports and Production

Vietnam's rice exports faced challenges in the first nine months of 2026, totaling 6.4 million tonnes worth $3.11 billion, a 6.1% drop in volume and 10.9% decrease in value compared to the previous year. Weak global demand and lower export prices contributed to the decline, though some markets like China and Iraq showed strong growth. The average export price dropped 5.1% to $484.8 per tonne. The Philippines remained Vietnam's top export market, accounting for 40.9% of shipments, followed by China with 17.4% and Ghana with 12.7%.

Thailand's rice export industry is struggling due to weakening overseas demand. Exports fell 12.3% to 5.2 million tonnes between January and September 2026. To meet the target of seven million tonnes for the year, another 1.8 million tonnes must be shipped in the final quarter. Competition from Pakistan, reduced Malaysian imports, and higher transportation costs due to Middle East conflicts are major concerns for Thai exporters.

In Nigeria, grain production is expected to decline in the 2026-27 period. The Foreign Agricultural Service reports that wheat, rice, and corn production will fall due to rural insecurity, higher input costs, and reduced farmer incentives. Wheat production is projected to drop 8% to 120,000 tonnes, while corn production is expected to decrease by 5% to 11.1 million tonnes. Imports are estimated to fall 5% to 5.6 million tonnes due to higher import prices and shipping bottlenecks, particularly from Russia, Nigeria's second-largest wheat supplier.