Global wheat market at risk of high-quality grain shortage

The global wheat market is facing a growing risk of a high-quality grain shortage. A key concern is the reduced access to Russian wheat, which typically has a protein content of around 12.5%. In Ukraine, about 60% of the 2026 wheat harvest is food-grade, but its protein level averages only 11.5%. Even if other exporters like Australia and Argentina provide enough wheat, much of it may also have a lower protein content, potentially leading to a shortage of premium-quality grain for millers.

The European Union is also struggling to replace Black Sea wheat supplies. The EU's wheat production for the 2026/27 marketing year is forecast at 133.2 million tonnes, down from 143.4 million tonnes the previous year. While France has produced good-quality grain, its harvest is smaller than last year's. Meanwhile, Romania and Bulgaria are seeing higher yields, but with a lower proportion of food-grade wheat. Moldova's wheat harvest quality is also reported to be comparatively low.

High fertiliser prices add another layer of risk for future seasons. Growing wheat with higher protein content requires more nitrogen, and the low premium for food-grade grain combined with expensive fertilisers may push farmers to cut costs. This could further reduce the quality of wheat harvests in the coming years.