Gold Bounces as Fed Rate Hike Fades into History

Gold prices rebounded on October's opening day, trading at $4,182.37 after an overnight range from $4,138.50 to $4,193.90.

This modest bounce follows a difficult month for gold, which dropped 4.6% in September after the Federal Reserve's rate hike on September 16.

The 10-year Treasury yield rose 44 basis points in September and is near its highest level since 2002, while central banks bought a record 288.9 tonnes of gold in Q2 2026, up 62% year over year.

With real yields at their highest levels in more than 15 years, the thesis for this forecast suggests that gold is caught between two strong forces: rising real yields and robust central bank buying.