Gold Climbs Despite Highest Treasury Yield in 24 Years

Gold prices rose 0.85% to $4,176.11 per ounce on October 6, 2026, defying expectations set by record-high bond yields. Silver also gained, climbing 0.46% to $61.43, but the gap between the two metals widened, pushing the gold-silver ratio to 67.98. The standout figure, however, was the 10-year Treasury yield, which hit its highest level since 2002 at 5.3%.

This movement followed September’s disappointing nonfarm payrolls report, which added only 29,000 jobs against expectations of 84,000-90,000. The weaker-than-expected jobs data led to a 78% probability, according to CME’s FedWatch tool, that the Federal Reserve would hold interest rates steady at its October 27-28 meeting. Normally, such a weak jobs report would boost gold, but this time, the bond market’s demand for higher yields is counteracting that effect.

Gold is rebounding from a two-month low, though its recovery is capped by a strong dollar and elevated yields. The 10-year Treasury yield reflects bond buyers’ demand for higher compensation for long-term risk, which is pulling gold in the opposite direction. The dollar’s strength also makes gold more expensive for international buyers, adding to the pressure.

Silver’s smaller gain and the higher gold-silver ratio may not signal a shift in investor preference. Silver’s price is influenced by both monetary factors and industrial demand, making it more volatile. Investors should monitor the next few sessions before drawing conclusions. The next key event is the Fed’s October meeting, where a rate hold is now the most likely outcome. The bond market’s independence from the Fed’s short-term policy decisions is a reminder that long-term risk assessments play a crucial role in gold’s price movements.