Commodities
Gold Defies Rate Hike Odds on Weaker Dollar, Widening US Deficits
Gold prices rose to $4,324.36 per ounce on September 16, 2026, as a weaker dollar and lower US Treasury yields reduced its holding cost before the Fed's decision.
Nikos Tzabouras, Senior Market Analyst at Jefferies-owned Tradu.com, pointed out that oil-linked inflation supports tighter policy, while widening US deficits weaken confidence in the dollar and direct capital toward gold.
The CME FedWatch Tool priced a 93% probability of at least a 25-basis-point hike, which would normally raise the cost of holding non-yielding gold. However, gold's advance despite this risk suggests dollar weakness and US deficit concerns are outweighing the rate outlook.