Gold Dips on MCX as Geopolitical Tensions and Fed Hike Expectations Weigh
On October 5, gold prices on India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) declined by 0.76%, reflecting broader market movements tied to the US dollar and geopolitical tensions. December gold futures settled at Rs. 1,49,251 per 10 grams, while December silver futures rose 0.36% to Rs. 2,26,679. In the global market, Brent crude futures dropped 0.86% to USD 101.4 per barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 1.31% to USD 89.92 per barrel.
US gold prices saw a slight uptick on Monday, supported by weaker economic data that reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October. Spot gold climbed 0.4% to USD 4,158.17 per ounce, while US gold futures for December delivery gained 0.6% to USD 4,186.40. Other precious metals also saw gains, with spot silver rising 1.7% to USD 61.40 per ounce, platinum up 0.6% to USD 1,708.48, and palladium increasing 0.6% to USD 1,175.04.
Analysts noted that softer labor market data had lowered the likelihood of an October Fed rate hike, providing some support to gold. However, broader expectations of continued rate hikes were still influencing market sentiment. Tim Waterer, Chief Market Analyst at KCM Trade, highlighted that Middle East developments would continue to impact gold prices through their influence on oil and inflation.
HSBC adjusted its gold price forecasts downward, citing expectations of further US rate hikes and higher oil prices. The firm lowered its 2026 forecast to USD 4,490 per ounce from USD 4,560 and its 2027 forecast to USD 4,825. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs maintained its end-2027 forecast at USD 5,400. Technically, gold showed signs of fresh buying, with open interest rising 1.50%, and key support and resistance levels identified at Rs. 1,49,570 and Rs. 1,50,975, respectively.