Gold Dips While Silver Rises on MCX Amid Fed Rate Hike Uncertainty
Gold and silver prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) opened mixed on Monday, with silver rising while gold fell. Silver futures for December 2026 delivery climbed Rs 1,025 to Rs 2,26,902 per kg, while gold futures for the same delivery date dropped Rs 1,400 to Rs 1,49,050 per 10 grams. This movement came as recent weak US economic data reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in October, boosting demand for non-yielding assets like precious metals.
The US job market showed slower growth than expected in September, with nonfarm payrolls for the previous two months also revised downward. This led markets to price in only a 22% probability of a Fed rate hike in October, down from 64% a week earlier, though the probability of a December rate increase remains high at 87%. The Fed had raised its benchmark rate to 3.75%-4.00% last month, its first hike in three years.
Geopolitical tensions also influenced market sentiment. Yemen's Saudi-backed government announced a major military campaign against Iran-backed Houthis, while oil prices slipped due to increased supply from the Middle East and G7 nations' oil stock releases. Despite these developments, spot gold prices rose 0.4% to $4,158.17 per ounce, and silver surged 1.7% to $61.40 per ounce.
Manoj Kumar Jain of Prithvi Finmart advised caution, noting that gold is holding support at $4,110 per troy ounce and silver at $59.10. He suggested that gold needs to cross and sustain above $4,255 for further strength, while silver should exceed $62.40. On the MCX, December gold is supported at Rs 1,47,700, and silver at Rs 2,18,800, with Jain recommending avoiding fresh positions amid uncertainty surrounding US-Iran peace talks.