Gold Enters Fresh Bull Phase Amid Central Bank Buying
TD Securities analysts believe gold is entering a fresh bullish phase, supported by speculative positioning, ETF flows, and central bank demand. The firm points to gold's resilience during Federal Reserve tightening as well as de-dollarisation themes and stronger Chinese buying.
The analysts note that three additional Fed hikes are already priced in, which could boost gold if actual rates rise less than expected. Market participants have scope to add length, while systematic funds have recently been net-negative after cutting modest longs ahead of the September FOMC.
TD Securities expects discretionary buying to re-energise the rally and sees central bank accumulation continuing through 2027, with spot gold potentially moving above $5,000 an ounce. The firm recommends derivative traders use long call options or bull call spreads to position for a major gold breakout.