Gold Finds Support as Market Focus Shifts Away from Interest Rates

The relationship between gold and real interest rates is weakening, according to Standard Chartered's Suki Cooper. The bank's Global Head of Commodities Research notes that gold has already recovered from its losses following the Federal Reserve's 25-basis-point rate hike last week.

In her latest precious metals report, Cooper explained that the market's focus appears to be shifting away from short-term monetary policy toward broader concerns surrounding de-dollarization, currency debasement, and the risk of market intervention. Official-sector demand continues to provide consistent downside support, and structural drivers remain in place to push prices higher.

The bank sees gold prices averaging around $4,650 an ounce in the final quarter of the year, currently trading at around $4,350 an ounce in the third quarter. Cooper notes that correlations with 10Y and 30Y yields are nearing neutral territory, at -20% and -10%, respectively.

Standard Chartered expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates one more time in December and then keep monetary policy unchanged through 2027. The bank has also raised its yield forecasts across the curve following a 50-basis-point upward revision to its terminal Fed rate forecast.