Gold Holds Steady Ahead of PCE Inflation Data and Jackson Hole Speech

Gold prices have been steady at around $4,643 after reaching a new high in three months. Traders are waiting for today's US PCE inflation data and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole, which will take place on Friday.

The release of the July Personal Consumption Expenditures price index is seen as a key catalyst for gold, with a softer reading expected to keep expectations for another rate hike low. On the other hand, a higher PCE reading would support the case for additional rate hikes and a stronger dollar, posing a risk for gold.

Boston Fed President Susan Collins has stated that interest rate hikes could be warranted 'relatively soon' if key indicators do not slow inflation, keeping the hike risk alive. The focus will then shift to Warsh's speech at Jackson Hole, where he is expected to strike a balance between persistent inflation and weakening economic conditions.

Gold's fundamentals are considered bullish in the medium-term, with increased demand for ETFs and Treasury buybacks supporting the broader gold story. However, the Middle East de-escalation has brought mixed signals, with lower oil prices alleviating inflation concerns but also reducing demand for safe-havens like gold.

Gold's technical analysis shows a bullish structure on the 4-hour chart, with a breakout at $4,685 seen as a trigger for further gains. The price is currently trading at around $4,643, with resistance levels at $4,754 and $4,833.