Gold Holds Steady Amid Macro Headwinds
Despite a tough macro environment in Q3, gold remained resilient and showed a positive trend. The Fed's hawkish FOMC meeting and tightening policies from major central banks should have negatively impacted gold, but it held steady, albeit with some weakness in September.
The metal bounced back in the first two months of Q3 after a 14% drop in Q2, reaching a 6.4% gain on the quarter by mid-September. However, this momentum weakened heading into Q4.
A potential deal to re-open the Strait of Hormuz could see central banks delay or pause rate hikes and boost gold prices. Central bank buying remains strong, with the People's Bank of China accumulating 'double-digit monthly purchases' since May 2026.
The technical analysis suggests a bullish trend for gold in the long term, but the near-term trend is not as optimistic. A break above $4,400 could see the metal move to $4,500 and then $4,700, with a potential target of $5,000 if acceptance above that level occurs.