Gold Market Diverges as Banks Cut Forecasts Amid Central Bank Buying

The gold market is experiencing a divergence in fortunes, with major international banks trimming their price forecasts while central banks continue to buy up bullion.

Commerzbank now sees gold at $4,800 by the end of 2026, while Citigroup projects a pullback to $4,300 over the next few months. JPMorgan's 2026 average estimate sits at $5,243, Morgan Stanley sees $5,200 for the second half, and ANZ remains the most bullish at $5,600 by year-end.

The People's Bank of China has extended its buying streak to a 21st consecutive month, adding roughly 20 tonnes of bullion in July alone. Globally, central banks purchased roughly 289 tonnes of gold in the second quarter, a 62 percent jump year-on-year.

Fresh US economic data and any progress on Hormuz negotiations will likely dominate market sentiment going forward, with the World Gold Council expecting investment to remain the primary growth driver in the second half.