Gold Price Forecasts Slash Amid Market Cooling
Recent downward revisions in gold price forecasts reflect shifting market dynamics. The AOCE has significantly lowered its 2026 estimate to US$3,813/oz, down from a previous high of US$4,792/oz. This adjustment comes amid a broader decline in gold prices, though the new estimate may still prove optimistic given the need for prices to drop sharply to near US$3,000/oz in the fourth quarter of 2026 to meet the target.
The AOCE has also cut its projections for 2027 and 2028, reducing them to US$4,012/oz and US$4,040/oz, respectively. These revisions indicate a reassessment of the speculative boom that occurred in late 2025 and early 2026, suggesting a slower-than-expected return to lower levels over the next couple of years rather than a few months.
Despite these short-term adjustments, the AOCE maintains its medium-term outlook, with forecasts for 2029 through 2031 remaining around US$4,000/oz. This stability in long-term expectations contrasts with the recent volatility, highlighting the organization's belief in a gradual normalization of gold prices over time.