Gold Price on Thin Ice: Can $4,200 Hold the Line?

The gold price has been trending downwards since Friday's low of $4,250. The question on every trader's mind is whether it will break through or hold at the $4,200 level.

The Federal Reserve hiked interest rates to 3.75-4.00% on September 16, with 16 out of 18 policymakers expecting another hike this year. Markets are pricing in a 66-70% chance of an October move. The 10-year yield has reached its highest since 2007 at 5.23%, making gold's zero yield less appealing.

The US Dollar Index has hit a three-month high at around 101.40, which is currently holding near 100.85. Vantage has support at 100.59, and as long as the dollar stays above it, gold gets no help from currency fluctuations.

Despite geopolitical tensions, including an attack on Saudi Arabia over the weekend, oil prices rose, but gold fell more than 6% from its mid-September high of $4,430. The author is bearish with medium conviction, suggesting that sellers are still in control, but it's late to join them.