Gold Price Target at $4280 as Fed Decision Looms

The gold price has been on a tear, but recent data suggests that the long position may be unwinding. According to the CFTC's August 25 report, non-commercial traders held a net long position of $243,334 against short positions, making up 56.9% of the market. This is an all-time high, with only three instances in the past 400 weeks since 2018 reaching or exceeding this level.

Warsh told Jackson Hole that PCE (Personal Consumption Expenditures) inflation rates are running at 3.7% over 12 months and 4.1% over six months. This would typically be a cue for the Fed to raise interest rates, but the current position in gold is not built for this scenario.

Given the recent climb of gold prices and the accumulation of long positions by speculators, it's possible that the unwind isn't finished yet. A target price of $4,280 is suggested for the September meeting, potentially influenced by the Fed's decision on interest rates.