Gold Prices Climb as Fed Rate Hike Expectations Fade
Gold prices saw a modest climb on Monday, October 5, 2026, as market expectations shifted following last week’s softer-than-expected jobs report. December futures for gold (GC=F) opened at $4,169.40 per troy ounce, marking a 0.2% increase from Friday’s close. By 7:07 a.m. ET, prices had risen further to $4,191.20 per troy ounce.
The upward movement comes as the market reassesses the Federal Reserve’s likely actions on interest rates later this month. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool now indicates an 80.6% chance that the Fed will hold rates steady, with only a 19.4% chance of a 25-basis-point increase. This represents a significant shift from just one week ago, when the market priced in a 70.9% likelihood of higher rates.
Despite the recent gains, gold prices remain lower compared to earlier periods. Over the past week, prices have fallen by 3.4%, and over the past month, the decline is 7.8%. However, the one-year change still shows a 7.4% gain, though this is the lowest year-over-year increase since the daily tracking began. At its peak on January 29, gold’s one-year gain was a staggering 95.6%.
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