Gold Prices Retreat as US Dollar Index Rises; Natixis Raises End-2026 Target to $5,000

Gold prices retreated after reaching a three-month high of $4,700 per ounce. COMEX December gold futures fell 0.9% to $4,653.3 on August 26 due to a 0.3% rise in the US Dollar Index and hotter-than-expected U.S. July PCE inflation at 3.7% year-over-year.

Natixis raised its end-2026 gold price target from $4,600 to $5,000 per ounce, citing swelling U.S. debt, concerns over Treasury market stability, and elevated currency debasement risks. The bank's precious metals analyst Bernard Dahdah believes that the current rally in gold does not necessarily mean investors are simply bullish on gold; it may reflect shifting confidence in the dollar and dollar-denominated financial assets.

The market now shifts its attention to Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's speech at the Jackson Hole symposium on Friday, as well as whether gold ETF inflows can sustain momentum. If Warsh signals a hawkish stance or if inflation data continues to surprise to the upside, real yields could rise and further pressure gold.