Gold Prices Soar Above $4,400 as Rate Hike Odds Plummet

Gold prices have surged to above $4,400 per ounce on August 17, 2026, as the Federal Reserve's rate hike odds plummeted following weak US economic data. The sharp decline in expectations for a September rate increase from around 50-51% to approximately 30-31%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, has weakened the US dollar and Treasury yields.

The US dollar index fell by roughly 0.2-0.3% on August 17, making gold more attractive as a store of value. Spot gold rose 0.5% to $4,398.58 per ounce by mid-morning GMT, having already hit a two-month high last week.

Central banks continue to accumulate gold reserves, with China's People's Bank of China (PBoC) adding approximately 20 tonnes in July alone. This marks the 21st consecutive month of Chinese central bank purchases, signaling a sustained strategic interest in gold as a reserve asset.