Gold Prices Surge Amid US-Iran Tensions and Hawkish Stance by Central Banks
Gold prices are on the rise, reaching a fresh daily high during the European session on Friday. The commodity is poised to register its best week since January as traders await the US monthly employment data for further impetus. The recent surge in gold prices has been fueled by mixed signals over the US-Iran peace deal and the risk of a wider regional conflict.
US President Donald Trump's comments on Thursday that he believed the war with Iran would be over soon have added to the uncertainty, prompting traders to price in the geopolitical risk premium. This, in turn, has supported the safe-haven US Dollar (USD) and capped gains for gold.
The situation is further complicated by reports of Iran reviewing a framework agreement over the management of the Strait of Hormuz that would prohibit passage of US, Israeli, and hostile vessels until compensation was paid. This development has revived concerns about energy supply disruptions and supported oil prices.
As a result, global central banks, including the US Federal Reserve (Fed), may adopt a more hawkish stance, keeping a lid on non-yielding gold. Traders are still pricing in an over 80% chance of a Fed rate hike by the end of this year, which favors USD bulls and warrants caution before positioning for further gains in gold.