Gold Prices to Break Back Above $5,000 in Second Half of 2027

Gold has been facing significant headwinds in recent times, including high long-dated bond yields, a strong US dollar, and rising crude prices. This has led to a sharp shift in sentiment that triggered a swift washout of short-term algorithmic positions built during late-summer rallies.

However, despite these macro pressures and the inherent handicap non-yielding assets face against high yields, gold continues to hold a firm floor above $4,000 per ounce. According to Amy Gower, head of metals and mining strategy at Morgan Stanley, this resilience signals that structural, long-term drivers remain fully intact despite short-term market turbulence.

The key pillar underpinning bullion's durability is sustained global physical buying, particularly from central banks in China and Poland who are aggressively accumulating reserves to diversify away from foreign fiat currencies. Broad Chinese imports are pacing toward their highest levels since at least 2017, proving that structural appetite remains robust even ahead of seasonal lulls like Golden Week.

Morgan Stanley anticipates this steady accumulation will eventually overwhelm transient dollar strength and algorithmic churn. On a 12-month horizon, Gower sees significant upside for the precious metal, forecasting spot prices to break back above $5,000 per ounce by the second half of 2027.